Monday, November 19, 2007

Revenge of the Nerds

Variance is probably every poker player's worst enemy.

Currently I'm on an awful run full of bad beats and coolers- but mainly bad beats. This in turn has led me to play less than well.

There are so many fucking terrible players at the tables. In fact, there are very few decent players. Of course, long-term this is what helps to pay my mortgage each month. However, during any bad run it's hard to think like that and to not get fucked off!

Thank you for listening! :)

David Brent Wannabe

I found this short 15-second clip on You Tube. It's a guy called Paul Smith from Safe Speed. Here is what wikipedia.org says of him:

Smith has also gained notoriety through a viral video on YouTube, in which he bears an uncanny soundalike resemblance to David Brent of The Office.

David Brent Wannabe

11 comments:

gamboooooooooooooooool said...

I'm right there with ya buddy. The run bad/play bad cycle is very difficult to overcome. The stock market selling off and wiping out a year full of gains isn't exactly helping the situation.

My solution this weekend was to not play poker and go to Canada with the wife. Ended up having a few drinks and eventually buying her her first lapdance. She's 27 and had never even been to such a place. An expensive weekend for sure which doesn't help the current run, but sometimes life has to be about experiences and not revolve around money. This has been a weekend to remember.

Now somehow I have to get back to focusing on grinding at the tables and figuring out how exactly I managed to profit in the past. It seems almost impossible to accomplish lately.

Smart Money said...

Good post, and you're right.

It's important that poker doesn't completely engulf you- yet it so often does. When you're running well and winning it's not too much of a problem- but during the inevitable downswings it's very important to put everything into perspective.

It's also helpful to remember that everyone who plays poker experiences variance regularly, and to not feel too sorry for yourself!

It's all about the long-term!

raylapsley said...

Mike -is the pokerEV program helping you by showing that it is variance/luck, and thus maintaining your non-tilt play, which is often the biggest problem when going through these runs?

Smart Money said...

To some extent it's satisfying to see when you lost, say, $600 worth of equity through all-ins!

A lot of the bad luck can be hard to quantify though- i.e. A 6BB raise (AA) gets called by A5 and the flop comes 55x- or you suffer a Set Vs Set cooler. (Or is PokerEV more flexible than what I use it for- the all-in luck graph mainly?)

(I had a high variance day yesterday- lost $700 playing for 1 hour in the afternoon- and then won $1,800 during a 3-hour period last night.)

Kenny said...

Set-o-meter (google it) will quantify KK into AA, set into set and overpair cracked by set sort of action. Perhaps helpful to spot leeks (not applicable in your case IMHO) but defo helpful to spot when you are being coolered to hell!

JPhil007 said...

Yes... variance sucks sometimes.

When you move up, your edge is smaller, so the variance is HIGHER!

I'm at the bottom of a 10 000$ downswing myself.

I'm doing ok at the NL400 to NL2000 tables, but my edge is a lot smaller at these limits (2 ptBB/100, 4 bb/100) = HUGE downswings when I run bad.

Long term... LONG term! (I try to convince myself lol)

gamboooool said...

I realize this isn't necessarily a place to post bad beats and muppets of the day, but I just can't hold back my frustration. I won one big pot early today, went card dead and slowly watched my profit evaporate, and then fell into the red with this muppet.

FullTiltPoker Game #4242555992: Table Bruce Buffer - $1/$2 - No Limit Hold'em - 20:04:39 ET - 2007/11/20
Seat 1: thetertl ($80)
Seat 2: Azuos ($194)
Seat 3: Gamboooool20 ($180.10)
Seat 4: HOLDEM DEZ ($95.70)
Seat 6: NicoretteGum ($223.55)
Seat 7: muohio88 ($80)
Seat 8: x_razzamatazz_x ($109.95)
Seat 9: FittSmurf ($202.70)
HOLDEM DEZ posts the small blind of $1
NicoretteGum has 5 seconds left to act
NicoretteGum posts the big blind of $2
5 seconds left to act
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Gamboooool20 [As Ac]
x_razzamatazz_x folds
FittSmurf folds
Azuos folds
Gamboooool20 raises to $8
HOLDEM DEZ raises to $14
NicoretteGum folds
Gamboooool20 has 15 seconds left to act
Gamboooool20 raises to $50
HOLDEM DEZ calls $36
*** FLOP *** [7c Jd Qs]
HOLDEM DEZ bets $45.70, and is all in
Gamboooool20 calls $45.70
HOLDEM DEZ shows [Th Jh]
Gamboooool20 shows [As Ac]
*** TURN *** [7c Jd Qs] [Ks]
*** RIVER *** [7c Jd Qs Ks] [9s]
HOLDEM DEZ shows a straight, King high
Gamboooool20 shows a pair of Aces
HOLDEM DEZ wins the pot ($190.40) with a straight, King high
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $193.40 | Rake $3
Board: [7c Jd Qs Ks 9s]
Seat 1: thetertl is sitting out
Seat 2: Azuos didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: Gamboooool20 (button) showed [As Ac] and lost with a pair of Aces
Seat 4: HOLDEM DEZ (small blind) showed [Th Jh] and won ($190.40) with a straight, King high
Seat 6: NicoretteGum (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 7: muohio88 is sitting out
Seat 8: x_razzamatazz_x didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: FittSmurf didn't bet (folded)

Smart Money said...

Think of this as your Poker Church; bad beats, Muppet of the Day, even confessions- all are welcome.

:)

Smart Money said...

I'll take at look at that Set-o-meter Kenny. Cheers.

Smart Money said...

Yeah- I imagine that is tough to handle JP.

Being disciplined, and developing the right frame of mind to deal with the downswings are certainly important traits that are required to be successful at this game.

I hope you recover quickly.

Anonymous said...

Nice play. I found the hand is easier to follow like this:

http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/2333

You can embed the visual right in your posts so that it's easier to understand.