Hand Analysis (Response)
Question 1. Do you raise, call, or fold, and why?
We have at least 13 outs, and probably 14; any diamond (except perhaps 2d or Td) and any King or 8. There are 44 unknowns (we know he doesn’t have a King or 8, and it’s most likely he doesn’t have a diamond.)
So, we have nearly 2/1 pot odds, and over 3/1 implied odds. We are being layed at 2/1 so our odds are good enough to see the river. Folding is not an option.
Pushing doesn’t give us any fold equity against this type of opponent at the cash table. His instant flop raise and instant pot-sized turn bet is a clear indictation of this.
Question 2. Do you check behind or push all-in, and why? What hand does villain have?
Up until the turn, it wasn’t too important to put him on a specific hand. It was sufficient to know that we had enough outs to make the call. Usually it would be an easy check/fold here however his near-instant check on the river, combined with the board pairing, gives his hand away I think.
The vast majority of players are often quite easy to read solely from the speed of their bets and most are not good at disguising this. (E.g. How do most players play their flopped set against a pre-flop raiser? They stall, and make a “reluctant’ call or raise. Very few call instantly.)
So what holdings can he have? Up until the river, it can be narrowed down to either a set or two pair. AT is possible I suppose, but only poor cash players would check the flop and then play it so strongly OOP at a full-handed table. Two pair would be the most likely holding (pre-river) due to the speed and size of his bets- indicting a need to protect his hand. (A set holder would generally take more time over his bet, and would certainly want a call.)
Once the river has been dealt, anyone holding a set here would push all-in 95% of the time. On a more draw heavy flop then a check/call could be justified to induce a bluff, however our drawing hand is so diguised it’s virtually impossible to put us on a hand that isn’t already made. (8d7d and Jd8d are probably the other other drawing hands we could have that had the odds to call the large turn bet.)
Once the set is ruled out, that leaves T9, T2 or 92. T9 would also push here as it’s unlikely we have an overpair given that we didn’t raise pre-flop from late position.
This leaves T2 or 92 as the only holdings that made sense. (The board pairing on the river counterfeited his hand.)
Hero bets $112.35, and is all in
Villain has 15 seconds left to act
Uncalled bet of $112.35 returned to Hero
Hero shows [Qd Jd] a pair of Threes
Hero wins the pot ($181)
Hero: 2 pair right?
Hero: 92 probably
Villain: u think u r good
Hero: tell me I'm wrong then
(As a general rule large river bluffs at full-handed cash should be avoided. I’ll often show my rare river bluffs to increase the chances of future big hands getting a call.)
So, as it turned out we actually had 19 outs on the turn (if we call) and 14 outs if we push. The 19 outs include 5 “pseudo outs”; outs that wouldn’t win us the pot in a showdown but do allow us to win the pot on a bluff as long as we have position.