Monday, June 25, 2007

Hand Analysis (Response)

Question 1. Do you raise, call, or fold, and why?

We have at least 13 outs, and probably 14; any diamond (except perhaps 2d or Td) and any King or 8. There are 44 unknowns (we know he doesn’t have a King or 8, and it’s most likely he doesn’t have a diamond.)

So, we have nearly 2/1 pot odds, and over 3/1 implied odds. We are being layed at 2/1 so our odds are good enough to see the river. Folding is not an option.

Pushing doesn’t give us any fold equity against this type of opponent at the cash table. His instant flop raise and instant pot-sized turn bet is a clear indictation of this.


Question 2. Do you check behind or push all-in, and why? What hand does villain have?

Up until the turn, it wasn’t too important to put him on a specific hand. It was sufficient to know that we had enough outs to make the call. Usually it would be an easy check/fold here however his near-instant check on the river, combined with the board pairing, gives his hand away I think.

The vast majority of players are often quite easy to read solely from the speed of their bets and most are not good at disguising this. (E.g. How do most players play their flopped set against a pre-flop raiser? They stall, and make a “reluctant’ call or raise. Very few call instantly.)

So what holdings can he have? Up until the river, it can be narrowed down to either a set or two pair. AT is possible I suppose, but only poor cash players would check the flop and then play it so strongly OOP at a full-handed table. Two pair would be the most likely holding (pre-river) due to the speed and size of his bets- indicting a need to protect his hand. (A set holder would generally take more time over his bet, and would certainly want a call.)

Once the river has been dealt, anyone holding a set here would push all-in 95% of the time. On a more draw heavy flop then a check/call could be justified to induce a bluff, however our drawing hand is so diguised it’s virtually impossible to put us on a hand that isn’t already made. (8d7d and Jd8d are probably the other other drawing hands we could have that had the odds to call the large turn bet.)

Once the set is ruled out, that leaves T9, T2 or 92. T9 would also push here as it’s unlikely we have an overpair given that we didn’t raise pre-flop from late position.
This leaves T2 or 92 as the only holdings that made sense. (The board pairing on the river counterfeited his hand.)


Hero bets $112.35, and is all in
Villain has 15 seconds left to act
Villain folds
Uncalled bet of $112.35 returned to Hero
Hero shows [Qd Jd] a pair of Threes
Hero wins the pot ($181)
Hero: 2 pair right?
Villain: lol
Hero: 92 probably
Villain: u think u r good
Hero: tell me I'm wrong then

(As a general rule large river bluffs at full-handed cash should be avoided. I’ll often show my rare river bluffs to increase the chances of future big hands getting a call.)

So, as it turned out we actually had 19 outs on the turn (if we call) and 14 outs if we push. The 19 outs include 5 “pseudo outs”; outs that wouldn’t win us the pot in a showdown but do allow us to win the pot on a bluff as long as we have position.


Anonymous said...

Hi mate.

Well i read the hand before i read the conclusion. The first thing is that i definately call the turn bet.
Now this is where it seems that me and you differ from the other views. I also push the river, (I know it looks easy now thst i know the result) but i made my decision based on your first hand posting.
The reason i push is because i think we have the same hand (obviously not in diamonds :))
I just think he has check raised you on the flop with QJ, had one more pot sized bet and then decided to give it up on the river and save his remaining $80.
The way the hand has played out means that if i was in his shoes with a two pair hand that was counterfeighted on the river then i couldn't possibly put you on an overpair, thus i would either move in, or check call.
So in my view the only hand he can check fold with is a missed draw, probably QJ or J8.

The reason i can't put you on an overpair Mike is your call on the turn. Most players would push here as they are not likely to fold to an $80 river bet, or want a tough decision on the end. So for this very reason i wouldn't fold 3 pair lolol.

Hope that all made sense as it is 5.30am.

Speak soon mate.


Smart Money said...

Good post Jas.

Tank shares your view regarding the fact that it's now hard to represent a made hand that wouldn't have pushed on the turn.

We could well have a set that we slow-played though or, as far as he's aware, we could be poor enough to be calling down with AT.

Regardless, I think it's sufficient to represent a made hand purely on the basis that there is no obvious drawing hand that we could have.

You're right of course that he could also have QJ, although he did take a while to make the fold on the river which probably suggests he has some sort of hand.

Anonymous said...

at a 6 seater table at $1/2 there is no way opponent would fold.
i am mildly surprised at a full ring table opponent folded. without knowing info about opponent i would guess most call there, but i may be very wrong?


Highstack said...

Jay; you play a lot more live and for that reason (despite that I have seen more casino donks than in any on line game) I would be more likely to push that river in your situation, as I know they are playing one game, not distracted by tv etc and concentrating on the hand with more time to think about potential holdings.

Despite what reads I might have made, that is a whole lot more difficult to bet on line, because a random unknown in a faceless game could not imo be trusted to make the right decision often enough and more likely to still make a bad crying call with T2 or 92.

Anonymous said...


I know what your saying mate, but my read on oppo here is that he doesn't have 92 or T2, my read is that we have the same hand, thus i don't want to share the pot by checking behind, or worse, losing to a badly played KQ.
Now if i am Mikes opponent and happen to have 92 or T2, then as i stated, i'm either moving in or check calling, because of my read on how he has played it.

So what i have done is played the hand from both players perspective, this is how i came to my conclusion that we might well have the same hand. :)

Now go to bed Robert :)