Sunday, June 24, 2007

Hand Analysis

I had one hand earlier from tonight that produced what is quite an interesting situation, although at first glance it may not appear so.

The villain (BB) is a typically ordinary player at these tables. He doesn't bluff too much. He is not too good at disguising his hands and bets strongly to protect good but vunerable holdings. He is a bit of a calling station but is capable of folding when he knows his hand is no good.

$1/$2 - No Limit Hold'em - 0:59:41 ET - 2007/06/24
Seat 1: UTG+1 ($189.15)
Seat 2: MP1 ($203.70)
Seat 3: MP2 ($215.90)
Seat 4: Hero ($202.35)
Seat 5: Button ($355.10)
Seat 6: Empty
Seat 7: SB ($108.55)
Seat 8: Villain ($170.15)
Seat 9: UTG ($258.85)
SB posts the small blind of $1
Villain posts the big blind of $2
Dealt to Hero [Qd Jd]
UTG calls $2
3 players fold
Hero calls $2
Button folds
SB calls $1
Villain checks
*** FLOP *** [Ts 2c 9d]
SB checks
Villain checks
UTG checks
Hero bets $7
SB folds
Villain raises to $26 [Instantly]
UTG folds
Hero calls $19
*** TURN *** [Ts 2c 9d] [3d]
Villain bets $62 [Instantly]
Hero ???

(Current pot size is $122)

Question 1. Do you raise, call, or fold, and why?

Assuming that we call and the following happens:

Hero calls $62
*** RIVER *** [Ts 2c 9d 3d] [3h]
Villain checks [After a 2 second pause]
Hero ???

(Villain has invested $90 into the pot, and has $80 left.)

Question 2. Do you check behind or push all-in, and why? What hand does villain have?


Andy Cairns said...

I think he has hit 2 pair on the flop, thats a hefty bet on the turn to call and he may even have filled his boat on the river and is now trapping with the nuts.

I think you have 15 outs after the turn so would probably fold there, but once you have called just check behind and have a look at what he is playing with, note it and move on.

I am shite at the analysis' though, but I dont have anything else to do at 8 o'clock in he morning. Do I win a Custard Cream?

Smart Money said...

You win a custard cream for being the first to respond.

Anonymous said...

turn is tricky.
getting about 3.5 -1, so i prob call or push

he WILL check call river imo, so i check behind.


Highstack said...

Why are people pushing the turn against someone who doesn't bluff? You have Q high despite the outs, so I can call and still pass if I miss.

As for his hldings, bottom set or 2 pair are likely.

The only way I push river is if I think he has flopped 2 pair and is good enough to have put you on overpair. He migh then believe that this has improved your hand to a better 2 pair and you say he is capable of passing when beat, although if its 22 he has now filled up! Its a big pot now and you can only win it with a bet, so if you can find one, then it is about how often you think he passes. The pot is paying you a little over 2/1 for push-bluff, so if you think he folds here more than 1 in 3 then its +ev to push.

Personally, I give the pot up by checking behind and move onto the next as I never trust on-line players to make the right decision!

Anonymous said...

mike i think hes got ace 10 so question 1 id just call as i think hell call if you push. q2 check behind same as 1 hell call, you know hell pay you off l8er on. engy

Highstack said...

I doubt that it is AT unless badly played engy. I don't believe that he would check TpTk in unraised multiway pot and give free cards for players to improve and beat him. He couldn't be sure of a bet often enough to ch-raise with AT imo.

Highstack said...

Just read my comments and I said overpair, of course that could also include him passing if he puts you on JT if he has T2, or on any T if he flopped 92.

Anonymous said...

I think he has 92 or T2I would also just call on the turn as I don't think he is passing and as it's clear he has a made hand the chances of getting paid off are very good. The problem on the river is that it's hard to represent a made hand which wouldn't have reraised before the river yet is now good enough to push all in. I think you should check behind because of this.


Anonymous said...

More importantly does your ex have a blog? or even just a picture only site?

I'd bookmark it just under Poker Queens.


Allez said...

Just 3-bet flop/Shove turn. I'd also only bet this flop if i was hoping to 3-bet.

He doesn't sound completely horrific so i never shove river, but i wouldn't get there in the first place.

Anonymous said...

highstack your right. i read the original post wrong i thought he bet out (instantly) on flop and turn but i see he check raised flop. engy

Anonymous said...

What did you do Mike?


ShaaBoom said...

Ok well after finally getting to the river I would shove. There is no way I am letting that pot go. If he calls and has the nuts good luck to him, if not happy days.

In a tournament however I check behind.