We Two Kings of Orient Are
I've mentioned it before, and it crops up all the time in forums- the topic of Folding KK pre in FR cash. Most don't share my view that KK is a hand that you should be prepared to throw away before seeing a flop.
I made this statement on a 2+2 thread:
If you sampled every pre-flop all-in at $1/$2 (whether you were involved in the hand or not) that involved KK and ~100BB effective stacks then collectively the KK hands would show a loss- and I don't think it would even be close.
For a bit of fun (woo-hoo) I'm going to make a conscious attempt to record all pre-flop all-ins that meet that above criteria (minimum 95BB) and will update here.
As long as I know you, and therefore trust you!, (e.g. from posting comments on here previously) then please feel free to post any suitable hand histories (that you witness going forward) here to add to the sample. (NB. Only from FR $1/$2 tables.)
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21 comments:
I agree with your theory here 100%, I actually have very little doubt that KK will show a loss long term when aipf for a full stack. I wouldn't even know how to go through and filter the hands that meet the criteria but I'm interested to see the results you come up with.
Hi mate.
I'm pretty sure it's not possible to filter out those kind of results. I really mean- if you come across any suitable hand histories going forward then please send them along.
(I'll alter my original post to clarify this.)
I haven't installed this software myself but the line, '...something that could flip from one key hand to the next based on specific criterion,' sounds promising.
I'm also trying to work out a way to exploit players who use the thinking (that may or may not now be correct) that only AA is good for a stack pre-flop. I drank too much alcohol last night so it's not immediately obvious to me.
Oops, see what I mean about the booze?!
Here's the link: http://www.pokerstove.com/pokertrace/
Have fun!
lol, cheers. I'll take a look.
You can exploit certain players' tendencies up to a point, but good players will quickly adapt.
For example, there are many players that I'm happy to get all-in against with a lot less than AA.
Remember, I'm talking in general here; typically between two unknowns.
That download link isn't working unfortunately.
It doesn't meet the criteria but today at $1/2 on FT a guy 4-bet me all in for $157 with A7s and destroyed my KK with a board of AxQ[A][Q]. I should have shown his A7 shove more respect and folded ;o)
When you say it's -EV to get it in with KK, are you counting any and all scenarios, or just ones where you have to CALL the other player's shove? From experience, I'd say the two are very different: a lot of people won't 4bet QQ PF, so there is no chance to get it in. However, if you shove into them, a lot of players simply cannot fold QQ.
Kos.
You're right that scenarios differ between shoving and calling all-ins.
However, to keep it simple, I'm referring to any situation where KK ends up all-in pre (@ $1/$2, >=95BB etc.)
Woah, if your experiment means KK being pushed or called AI for 95bb then there is no way it won't be profitable. There are plenty of muppets that will call with QQ+,AK and in rare cases other hands too.
If you were referring to simply calling a 4-bet push then I can agree KK won't be that profitable, if at all. Overall I'd be very confident that of all the times I've played a 95bb+ pot preflop with KK it has worked out profitable (well, todays hand probably hasn't helped matters!)
Dealer: You have been dealt [Kc Kd]
Dealer: Moustache Man folds
Dealer: juventus99 folds
Dealer: Pedros folds
Dealer: RascalKing folds
Dealer: Hero raises to $7
Dealer: SaraFa folds
Dealer: Plasphemy folds
Dealer: cknotts226 raises to $24
Dealer: jimmythegreek99 folds
Dealer: Hero raises to $76
Dealer: cknotts226 raises to $217.85, and is all in
Dealer: hero calls $141.85
Dealer: cknotts226 shows [Kh Ks]
Dealer: hero shows [Kc Kd]
Dealer: The flop is [Qh Jh 7c]
Dealer: The turn is [6h]
Dealer: The river is [As]
Dealer: cknotts226 shows a pair of Kings
Dealer: hero shows a pair of Kings
Dealer: cknotts226 ties for the pot ($217.35) with a
pair of Kings
Dealer: hero ties for the pot ($217.35) with a
pair of Kings
me and villain had some history, so I didnt wanna lay it down. But i agree u sometimes need to lay down KK preflop. Love the blog, keep more coming :)
Hi Narena,
Will you post a screenshot of your results either in your blog, or a link to them in my blog?
Also, just a comment on one hand you played. You check-min-raise bluff with air KQ on AAx flop. My only suggestion is either, make the bluff raise bigger, or fire a second barrel on the turn. Otherwise I think you are just wasting $20 because he is getting 4.5-1 to call in position and he is the UTG raiser and is rarely ever folding for that price.
Best,
dobieatwar
You're right about that hand- I think you're referring to the one I played earlier tonight. I was fed up and fucked off with useless idiots getting lucky- and by my own awful play. I was planning on a "2-street bluff" but then just gave up. I stopped playing for the night after that.
Hey Narena, after seeing your poker set up mate i thought i'd post a pic of my current poker set up. I think you'll have to concede that mine is better than yours!!!
lol, very nice.
I concede.
I just had to share this muppet of the day, too funny and your blog is the most appropriate place. This guy is a muppet for the way he played this hand, and gets double muppet status for his commentary after the hand.
FullTiltPoker Game #4912349309: Table Los Padres - $1/$2 - No Limit Hold'em - 0:16:22 ET - 2008/01/19
Seat 1: zmen1 ($198.30), is sitting out
Seat 2: highlimit69 ($93.20)
Seat 3: chemguy1230 ($367.35)
Seat 4: Cuernavaca ($50), is sitting out
Seat 5: HomeRow ($207.70)
Seat 6: BuckyLastard ($1,052.65)
Seat 7: Gamboooool20 ($361.10)
Seat 8: LifeofLuxury ($200)
Seat 9: Thaddypants ($197)
BuckyLastard posts the small blind of $1
Gamboooool20 posts the big blind of $2
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Gamboooool20 [3c 8c]
LifeofLuxury folds
Thaddypants folds
highlimit69 raises to $4
chemguy1230 folds
HomeRow folds
BuckyLastard folds
Gamboooool20 calls $2
*** FLOP *** [4s 3d 6s]
Gamboooool20 checks
highlimit69 bets $2
Gamboooool20 calls $2
*** TURN *** [4s 3d 6s] [3h]
Gamboooool20 checks
highlimit69 bets $6
Gamboooool20 raises to $42
highlimit69 calls $36
*** RIVER *** [4s 3d 6s 3h] [Th]
Gamboooool20 bets $313.10, and is all in
highlimit69 calls $45.20, and is all in
Uncalled bet of $267.90 returned to Gamboooool20
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Gamboooool20 shows [3c 8c] three of a kind, Threes
highlimit69 mucks
Gamboooool20 wins the pot ($184.40) with three of a kind, Threes
highlimit69 is sitting out
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $187.40 | Rake $3
Board: [4s 3d 6s 3h Th]
Seat 1: zmen1 is sitting out
Seat 2: highlimit69 mucked [Kc Ks] - two pair, Kings and Threes
Seat 3: chemguy1230 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: Cuernavaca is sitting out
Seat 5: HomeRow (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: BuckyLastard (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 7: Gamboooool20 (big blind) showed [3c 8c] and won ($184.40) with three of a kind, Threes
Seat 8: LifeofLuxury didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: Thaddypants didn't bet (folded)
highlimit69: u got to be kiddin
highlimit69: dude u suck
highlimit69: 3 5
highlimit69: how do u call preflop
highlimit69: u will never make money at this game
highlimit69: playing like that
lol, quality.
Howdy
Saw your blog through a friends blog (tenbob) and read most of your 2+2 thread on the subject. Pretty bold statement and I'd love to see the results of your little test.
Anyways I've linked you from my blog (http://chucktscanadiandream.blogspot.com/), hope you'll do the same if you're interested ;)
btw nice boobies.
-ChuckTs
One for the KK clan:
FullTiltPoker Game #5000707563: Table Cork Oak - $1/$2 - No Limit Hold'em - 6:51:19 ET - 2008/01/26
Seat 1: bornlooza ($98.05)
Seat 2: nellie1972 ($40)
Seat 3: pokerRph ($287.60)
Seat 4: RiVerMooN888 ($334.40)
Seat 5: Test_Eagles ($341.15)
Seat 6: nerdheid ($77)
Seat 7: Narena ($306.30)
Seat 8: Asid Reign ($38.80)
Seat 9: Tilty Tilterton ($200)
RiVerMooN888 posts the small blind of $1
Test_Eagles posts the big blind of $2
nerdheid posts a dead small blind of $1
nerdheid posts $2
5 seconds left to act
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Narena [8c 7c]
nerdheid checks
Narena calls $2
Asid Reign folds
Tilty Tilterton raises to $16
bornlooza folds
pokerRph folds
RiVerMooN888 folds
Test_Eagles has 15 seconds left to act
Test_Eagles raises to $80
nerdheid folds
Narena has 15 seconds left to act
Narena has requested TIME
Narena is sitting out
Narena has timed out
Narena folds
Narena has returned
Tilty Tilterton has 15 seconds left to act
Test_Eagles: time out accidentally?
Tilty Tilterton raises to $200, and is all in
Test_Eagles calls $120
Tilty Tilterton shows [Kd Ks]
Test_Eagles shows [Kh Ad]
*** FLOP *** [8s 9d 4h]
*** TURN *** [8s 9d 4h] [9s]
*** RIVER *** [8s 9d 4h 9s] [5c]
Tilty Tilterton shows two pair, Kings and Nines
Test_Eagles shows a pair of Nines
Tilty Tilterton wins the pot ($403) with two pair, Kings and Nines
Test_Eagles adds $58.85
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $406 | Rake $3
Board: [8s 9d 4h 9s 5c]
Seat 1: bornlooza didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: nellie1972 is sitting out
Seat 3: pokerRph (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: RiVerMooN888 (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 5: Test_Eagles (big blind) showed [Kh Ad] and lost with a pair of Nines
Seat 6: nerdheid folded before the Flop
Seat 7: Narena folded before the Flop
Seat 8: Asid Reign didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: Tilty Tilterton showed [Kd Ks] and won ($403) with two pair, Kings and Nines
zomg
Megamuppet (-43% ROI on sharkscope):
Fawking idiot hasn’t won a HU SNG in 30 and here is how he beats me:
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Fuel55 [Tc Ts]
tuppercats: raises 60 to 80
Fuel55: raises 220 to 300
tuppercats: calls 220
*** FLOP *** [Kh 4h 9s]
Fuel55: bets 960 and is all-in
tuppercats: calls 960 (what in the fawking world does h think he is ahead of?)
*** TURN *** [Kh 4h 9s] [3h]
*** RIVER *** [Kh 4h 9s 3h] [Ah]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Fuel55: shows [Tc Ts] (a pair of Tens)
tuppercats: shows [4d As] (two pair, Aces and Fours)
tuppercats collected 2520 from pot
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